{"id":33405,"date":"2026-06-28T19:52:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T17:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chinasmartbuy.com\/blog\/prezzi-memoria-aumento-2026-2028-jefferies\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T19:52:32","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T17:52:32","slug":"prezzi-memoria-aumento-2026-2028-jefferies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chinasmartbuy.com\/blog\/prezzi-memoria-aumento-2026-2028-jefferies\/","title":{"rendered":"Prezzi memoria in forte aumento: fino al 50% nel terzo trimestre 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n<style>\n  :root {\n    --red: #CC1B1B;\n    --red-light: rgba(204,27,27,0.08);\n    --red-mid: #e84040;\n    --accent-soft-bg: rgba(204,27,27,0.07);\n    --accent-soft-border: rgba(204,27,27,0.18);\n    --text: #1a1a1a;\n    --text-muted: #666;\n    --card: #ffffff;\n    --border: #ebebeb;\n    --page-bg: #ffffff;\n    --surface-soft: #fafafa;\n    --surface-contrast: #f0f0f0;\n    --line-soft: #f5f5f5;\n    --soft-label: #bbb;\n    --muted-label: #999;\n    --copy: #333;\n    --font-head: 'Bebas Neue', sans-serif;\n    --font-body: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n    --heading-spacing: 0.04em;\n    --heading-weight: 400;\n    --spec-header-spacing: 0.08em;\n    --quickfacts-shadow: 0 10px 24px rgba(15,23,42,0.06);\n  }\n  .fbp5-wrap,.fbp5-wrap * { box-sizing:border-box; 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}\n    .rh-downloadbox-head { flex-direction:column; }\n    .rh-downloadbox-link { width:100%; }\n    .rh-offerbox-head { flex-direction:column; }\n    .rh-offerbox-links { grid-template-columns:1fr; }\n    .rh-offer-inline-wrap { flex-direction:column; align-items:flex-start; }\n    .rh-offer-inline-cta { width:100%; }\n  }\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"fbp5-wrap rh-json-article\" id=\"rh-article-mqy36e36-576dm\" data-rh-article-type=\"news\" data-rh-site-profile=\"china-smart-buy\">\n  <div class=\"fbp5-intro\">\n    \n    <p>Il mercato delle memorie si prepara a un nuovo ciclo di rincari molto pesanti tra il 2026 e il 2027. Le stime di Jefferies indicano un aumento dei prezzi tra <strong>il 40% e il 50% nel terzo trimestre 2026<\/strong>, seguito da un altro rialzo tra il 30% e il 40% nel quarto trimestre dello stesso anno.<\/p><p>Il quadro non riguarda solo server e intelligenza artificiale: la stretta sull&#8217;offerta rischia di riflettersi anche su smartphone, PC, notebook e console. Il punto chiave \u00e8 che sempre pi\u00f9 capacit\u00e0 produttiva viene bloccata da accordi di lungo periodo con i grandi gruppi tech, lasciando meno margine per l&#8217;elettronica di consumo.<\/p>\n  <\/div><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" style=\"margin:18px 0;display:block;clear:both;width:100%;position:relative;z-index:1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinasmartbuy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/prezzi-memoria-in-forte-aumento-memory-i2iy8l1mif.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" style=\"display:block;width:100%;position:relative;z-index:2;pointer-events:auto;cursor:zoom-in\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chinasmartbuy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/prezzi-memoria-in-forte-aumento-memory-i2iy8l1mif.jpg\" alt=\"https:\/\/cdn.wccftech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Memory.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"display:block;max-width:100%;height:auto;margin:0 auto;pointer-events:auto\"><\/a><\/figure>\n  \n\n      <section class=\"fbp5-section\">\n        <div class=\"fbp5-section-label\">Scenario<\/div>\n        <h2>I prezzi delle memorie potrebbero salire fino al 50% gi\u00e0 nel <span>terzo trimestre 2026<\/span><\/h2>\n        <p>Le previsioni descrivono una fase di pressione continua sui prezzi di DRAM e NAND. Dopo il forte rialzo atteso nel terzo trimestre 2026, il mercato dovrebbe affrontare un ulteriore incremento nel quarto trimestre, mentre per tutto il 2027 si profila un aumento medio annuo tra <strong>il 40% e il 45%<\/strong>.<\/p><p>Alla base dei rincari ci sono carenze globali di fornitura, la migrazione verso nuovi nodi produttivi e una domanda ancora molto sostenuta dal lato AI e calcolo ad alte prestazioni. Anche con un&#8217;espansione dell&#8217;offerta tra il 15% e il 20% nel 2028, il riequilibrio non viene considerato immediato, proprio perch\u00e9 la richiesta di memoria continua a crescere.<\/p>\n        <ul class=\"fbp5-bullet-list\"><li>Terzo trimestre 2026: prezzi memoria attesi in crescita del <strong>40%-50% trimestre su trimestre<\/strong>.<\/li><li>Quarto trimestre 2026: ulteriore aumento previsto del <strong>30%-40% trimestre su trimestre<\/strong>.<\/li><li>2027: rincaro medio indicato tra <strong>40% e 45% anno su anno<\/strong>.<\/li><li>2028: possibile discesa degli ASP grazie a nuova capacit\u00e0 produttiva tra il 15% e il 20%.<\/li><\/ul>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-grid\">\n      <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-card\">\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-label\">Finestra critica<\/div>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-value\">Dal terzo trimestre 2026 per tutto il 2027<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n      <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-card\">\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-label\">Motore della domanda<\/div>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-value\">AI, cloud e calcolo ad alte prestazioni<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n        <div class=\"fbp5-highlight\">Il passaggio chiave \u00e8 che il mercato non vede un rientro rapido dei prezzi: la correzione viene spostata direttamente al 2028.<\/div>\n        <div class=\"fbp5-info\">Per chi segue smartphone, notebook e hardware consumer, questo scenario significa componenti pi\u00f9 costosi e maggior rischio di aumenti sui prezzi finali dei prodotti.<\/div>\n        \n      <div class=\"fbp5-scheda\">\n        <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-header\">Stime principali sul mercato memoria<\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Q3 2026<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">+40% \/ +50% rispetto al trimestre precedente<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Q4 2026<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">+30% \/ +40% rispetto al trimestre precedente<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Anno 2027<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">+40% \/ +45% rispetto all&#8217;anno precedente<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Anno 2028<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">Possibile calo ASP con nuova offerta del 15% \/ 20%<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n      <\/div>\n    \n      <\/section><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" style=\"margin:18px 0;display:block;clear:both;width:100%;position:relative;z-index:1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinasmartbuy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/prezzi-memoria-in-forte-aumento-dsc-0263-custom-1920x1280-1-gat0ohz79g.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" style=\"display:block;width:100%;position:relative;z-index:2;pointer-events:auto;cursor:zoom-in\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.chinasmartbuy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/prezzi-memoria-in-forte-aumento-dsc-0263-custom-1920x1280-1-gat0ohz79g.jpg\" alt=\"Three Crucial DDR5 RAM sticks with 'micron' branding are illuminated in purple and blue lighting.\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"display:block;max-width:100%;height:auto;margin:0 auto;pointer-events:auto\"><\/a><\/figure>\n    \n\n      <section class=\"fbp5-section\">\n        <div class=\"fbp5-section-label\">Mercato<\/div>\n        <h2>Gli accordi di lungo periodo con i grandi clienti riducono la memoria disponibile per i <span>prodotti consumer<\/span><\/h2>\n        <p>Circa il 50% della capacit\u00e0 complessiva risulta gi\u00e0 coperto da contratti e accordi di lungo termine tra produttori di memoria e grandi aziende tecnologiche. Questa quota potrebbe salire fino al 70%, restringendo ulteriormente la disponibilit\u00e0 per segmenti come PC, portatili, console e smartphone.<\/p><p>Il meccanismo \u00e8 semplice: quando una parte sempre pi\u00f9 ampia della produzione viene prenotata in anticipo dai hyperscaler e dai grandi clienti enterprise, il mercato consumer resta pi\u00f9 esposto a scarsit\u00e0 e rincari. \u00c8 un passaggio importante perch\u00e9 collega direttamente la corsa all&#8217;AI ai prezzi dell&#8217;elettronica che arriva nei negozi.<\/p>\n        <ul class=\"fbp5-bullet-list\"><li>Capacit\u00e0 gi\u00e0 vincolata da contratti di lungo periodo: <strong>circa 50% del totale<\/strong>.<\/li><li>Quota potenzialmente vincolata in futuro: fino al <strong>70%<\/strong>.<\/li><li>Micron ha gi\u00e0 firmato <strong>16 accordi strategici<\/strong> con clienti selezionati.<\/li><li>I comparti pi\u00f9 esposti sono smartphone, PC, notebook e console.<\/li><\/ul>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-grid\">\n      <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-card\">\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-label\">Effetto pratico<\/div>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-value\">Meno memoria disponibile sul mercato aperto<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n      <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-card\">\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-label\">Settori sotto pressione<\/div>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-value\">Elettronica di consumo e hardware retail<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n        <div class=\"fbp5-highlight\">La memoria non manca solo perch\u00e9 la domanda cresce: una fetta sempre pi\u00f9 ampia viene assegnata prima ancora di arrivare al mercato consumer.<\/div>\n        <div class=\"fbp5-info\">Questo spiega perch\u00e9 i rincari potrebbero propagarsi lungo tutta la filiera, dai componenti ai dispositivi completi.<\/div>\n        \n      <div class=\"fbp5-scheda\">\n        <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-header\">Indicatori di allocazione dell&#8217;offerta<\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Capacit\u00e0 coperta oggi<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">50%<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Capacit\u00e0 coperta potenziale<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">70%<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Accordi strategici Micron<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">16<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n      <\/div>\n    \n      <\/section>\n    \n\n      <section class=\"fbp5-section\">\n        <div class=\"fbp5-section-label\">Brand e roadmap<\/div>\n        <h2>Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron e i produttori cinesi non bastano ancora a <span>raffreddare il mercato<\/span><\/h2>\n        <p>Nel breve periodo i grandi nomi della memoria, cio\u00e8 Samsung, SK Hynix e Micron, non mostrano segnali tali da cambiare il trend. Allo stesso tempo, l&#8217;idea che i produttori cinesi possano diventare rapidamente la leva per abbassare i prezzi viene ridimensionata: DRAM e NAND cinesi vengono vendute a livelli simili a quelli del resto del mercato e il vantaggio principale resta la disponibilit\u00e0.<\/p><p>CXMT e YMTC vengono indicate come realt\u00e0 da osservare pi\u00f9 avanti, non come fattore risolutivo nel 2026 o nel 2027. Il loro piano di espansione potrebbe pesare di pi\u00f9 dal 2028, con nuove fabbriche e linee produttive capaci di aumentare l&#8217;inventario disponibile anche fuori dalla Cina.<\/p>\n        <ul class=\"fbp5-bullet-list\"><li>I tre grandi della DRAM restano <strong>Samsung, SK Hynix e Micron<\/strong>.<\/li><li>CXMT e YMTC non vengono considerate una soluzione immediata ai rincari del 2026-2027.<\/li><li>La produzione cinese oggi non appare abbastanza aggressiva sui prezzi da rompere gli equilibri di mercato.<\/li><li>Un impatto pi\u00f9 visibile della nuova capacit\u00e0 cinese viene collocato dal <strong>2028<\/strong> in avanti.<\/li><\/ul>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-grid\">\n      <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-card\">\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-label\">Possibile svolta<\/div>\n        <div class=\"rh-quickfacts-value\">Espansione produttiva pi\u00f9 incisiva dal 2028<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n        <div class=\"fbp5-highlight\">La narrativa della memoria cinese a basso costo non trova conferma nel breve termine, quindi il mercato resta esposto a prezzi elevati ancora a lungo.<\/div>\n        <div class=\"fbp5-info\">Per i brand di smartphone e PC questo significa pianificare acquisti e listini in una fase in cui la memoria torna a essere una delle voci pi\u00f9 sensibili del costo hardware.<\/div>\n        \n      <div class=\"fbp5-scheda\">\n        <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-header\">Attori principali del mercato memoria<\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Leader DRAM globali<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Player cinesi osservati<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">CXMT, YMTC<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n          <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-row\">\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-key\">Orizzonte di possibile alleggerimento<\/div>\n            <div class=\"fbp5-scheda-val\">2028<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        \n      <\/div>\n    \n      <\/section>\n    \n<\/div><div class=\"rh-attribution-pills\" style=\"display:flex;gap:10px;flex-wrap:wrap;justify-content:flex-start;margin:16px 0 0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wccftech.com\/jefferies-warns-memory-prices-surge-50-percent-q3-40-in-q4-2026-no-relief-until-2028\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Via: VIA\" aria-label=\"Via: VIA\" style=\"display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;padding:10px 16px;border-radius:16px;background:linear-gradient(135deg,#fff7ed,#ffedd5);color:#c2410c;text-decoration:none;font-size:11px;font-weight:900;letter-spacing:.08em;text-transform:uppercase;border:1px solid rgba(249,115,22,.20);box-shadow:0 8px 22px rgba(249,115,22,.08)\">Via<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le memorie DRAM e NAND potrebbero rincarare fino al 50% nel terzo trimestre 2026, con effetti a catena su smartphone, PC e altri prodotti consumer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":33403,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw_text_input":"prezzi memoria 2026","footnotes":""},"categories":[480],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-33405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-smartphone"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":8}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prezzi memoria in forte aumento: fino al 50% nel terzo trimestre 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jefferies prevede rincari molto forti per DRAM e NAND nel 2026 e 2027, con effetti attesi 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